Air Temperature Increase in Europe in the 20TH end 21ST Centuries – Can it Really be Halted by Limiting CO2 Emissions?

Andrzej A. MARSZ, Anna STYSZYNSKA

Abstract

This paper discusses changes in the mean annual air temperature over Europe over the period 1931–2020. It was found that the entire warming of Europe by ~1.6°C, which occurred between 1931 and 2020, actually ensued between 1988 and 2020. Earlier, between 1931 and 1988, there was no increase in air temperature over Europe. The authors have examined two hypotheses explaining the causes of this warming: a) the hypothesis of anthropogenic origin of this warming, caused by an increase in atmospheric concentration (IPCC), versus the hypothesis: b) the warming process is the result of natural processes (processes of internal variability in the climate system). Statistical analysis identified the causes of climate change over Europe between 1987 ÷ 1989 and demonstrated that hypothesis b) is true, explaining that the rapid increase in air temperature observed between 1988 and 2020 is the result of natural processes beyond the control of human activity. Therefore, reducing emissions by eliminating the burning of fossil fuels has no impact on halting further air temperature increases.

Keywords

temperature rise, natural factors, Europe North Atlantic

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